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Welcome to the 2,840 new operators who joined us this week! 🤯
Hey Fastlane Insiders! 👋
We're closing out January, and if your Q1 feels like you're still catching your breath from BFCM—inventory decisions, fulfillment bottlenecks, or figuring out which growth plays are worth doubling down on—you're not alone.
Here's what most brands miss: generating orders is only half the battle. The real test starts after checkout. If orders don't ship fast and accurately, your record-breaking weekend becomes a retention disaster.
I recently chatted with James Solier, SVP of Central Operations at ShipBob, whose team just analyzed millions of orders across their 60+ warehouse network. The data reveals a clear pattern: the brands crushing Q1 weren't just the ones who drove the most BFCM traffic—they're the ones who started positioning inventory in September, maintained 22 weeks of cover, and built ops that handled 2x October demand without breaking.
Whether you're doing $50K or $1M months, the operational decisions you're making right now determine whether BFCM momentum carries forward or bleeds out.
Here's what made the cut this week:
🎧 Podcast Release – Why self-fulfillment breaks at $1-5M, how FTZ warehouses defer tariff pain, and why Canada/Australia orders spiked 400%+ (hint: lower CACs, less competition).
💡 Knowledge Drops – A stage-based playbook for evaluating ChatGPT commerce (spoiler: most brands should wait), plus the Shopify CEO who stopped "cosplaying" professional management and saved millions by killing 60% of projects.
🔥 Tool of the Week – TrustWill Review turns customer reviews into SEO rocket fuel with star ratings, photo/video reviews, and retention tools that don't feel like homework.
📡 Industry Pulse – AI maturity frameworks that actually matter for merchants, Shopify's Q4 earnings (Feb 11), and TikTok Shop's new AI tools for social sellers.
If you're scaling fulfillment, evaluating new commerce channels, or just trying to separate real growth levers from hype—this edition's for you.
Let's dive in. 👇
🎧 New Podcast Episode! 🎧
The Brands That Crushed BFCM Weren't Just Driving Orders—They Built Operations That Scale Into 2026
Shopify merchants generated over $14 billion during BFCM (up 27% YoY), but the brands still growing in Q1 aren't the ones who had the best Black Friday—they're the ones who nailed what happened after checkout.
I sat down with James Solier, SVP of Central Operations at ShipBob, who just released a massive BFCM postmortem analyzing millions of orders across their 60+ warehouse network. The operational patterns separating winners from plateau brands are now clear—and they're the same moves that set you up to win in 2026:
Inventory timing beats panic buying. Top brands started inbound in September, maintained 22 weeks of cover, and peaked a full week later than last year—proof of cash optimization and 20–40% YoY growth while competitors scrambled.
Self-fulfillment breaks between $1–5M. At that stage, your time packing boxes costs more than outsourcing, and you hit a ceiling. Moving to a 3PL frees you to scale without operational chaos.
Cross-border is underpriced opportunity. Orders to Canada jumped 400%, Australia 250%. Brands using distributed inventory or DDP/DDU models found lower CACs and less competition than the saturated U.S. market.
FTZ warehouses defer tariff pain. Foreign Trade Zone facilities let you bring inventory stateside without paying duties upfront—you pay when it ships. Massive cash flow win for China-sourced inventory in a tariff-heavy environment.
Category winners prove it's not the niche, it's the execution. Apparel, beauty, toys, and health all grew 20%+, but standout brands in those same categories hit 40%+. The gap? Product-market fit, marketing, and fulfillment working together.
The 2026 forecast is 8–10% industry growth, but brands that master operations, inventory timing, and global distribution will continue to grow 30%+ while competitors stall.
The real question 👉 Are you building for sustainable scale or just chasing the next sale?
[ LISTEN NOW ] Unpack the operational realities separating winners from everyone else
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💡 Knowledge Drops of the Week 💡
The CEO Who Stopped Cosplaying: How Tobi Lütke Saved Shopify Millions by Killing 60% of Projects
After Shopify went public, Tobi Lütke fell into a familiar trap—building the kind of “professional” structure companies are supposed to have. He added layers, hired executives with shiny titles, built dashboards no one read, and created complexity in the name of legitimacy. Then COVID hit, and a brutal audit revealed the truth: 60% of Shopify’s projects weren’t worth doing.
His response was ruthless and refreshing. Within a year, he replaced large portions of the exec team, opened direct Slack access to acquired founders to avoid “founder daycare,” and built a Python model of the company that made Shopify machine-readable.
Here's what actually changed:
Stop cosplaying professional management. If you’re adding structure for optics—not because it solves a real constraint—you’re burning time and cash. Shopify discovered that entire initiatives existed just because they looked like what “real” companies do.
Model your business as a system. Shopify’s internal mapping exposed 8,000 people with over 5,000 different titles. Once decisions became explicit trade-offs, debate turned into clarity, and politics disappeared.
Run the “corporate raider” exercise quarterly. Picture this: your company goes bankrupt, and you buy it back cheap. What would you cut on day one? Most operators find 40–60% of what they’re doing adds no real value.
Mandate public differentiation. Every executive must explain—publicly—how Shopify approaches their function differently and why it’s better. This makes imitation obvious and rewards genuine innovation.
The brands building real moats right now aren’t the ones following “best practices.” They’re the ones asking—which practices actually serve our constraints, and which just look impressive?
Should You Actually Care About Selling Inside ChatGPT?
(Spoiler: Most brands should wait—but here's how to know if you're the exception)
Selling inside ChatGPT isn't the same as "showing up in AI answers." It means true checkout-in-chat: customers discover, choose variants, and complete payment without leaving the conversation.
Most operators are evaluating this wrong. They're missing the three control points that actually matter:
Where does the customer start?
Where does payment happen?
Who owns the order when something breaks?
Here's the part nobody's talking about:
Google's UCP (announced January 11, 2026), OpenAI's ACP with Stripe, and PayPal's new agentic services are all moving at once. But the brands winning early aren't chasing protocols, they're the ones whose operations are so clean that when AI sends demand, the entire journey just quietly works.
The framework that actually helps:
If you're under $100K: ignore this and fix your store fundamentals first.
If you're $100K–$1M: watch and prepare your product data now.
If you're over $1M: run a controlled 30-day test with 10–25 SKUs using the decision rubric I built.
The failure modes are predictable (wrong variants, policy confusion, return spikes), and so is the fix. I walk through the exact readiness checklist, the 30-day test structure, and the green/yellow/red decision framework inside.
The real unlock? Brands that can turn this on in 48 hours versus competitors who need 6 months of cleanup.
🔥 Tool of the Week 🔥
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⚡ This Week’s Industry Pulse ⚡
A handful of updates land that actually move the needle. Here's what made the cut…
Enterprise AI Maturity framework from Nick Talwar (CTO, ex-Microsoft) exposes the gap between deploying AI agents and managing them at scale. The piece breaks down three pillars vendors rarely address: orchestration (coordinating agents across workflows), observability (monitoring decisions in real-time), and auditability (tracking decision trails for compliance and debugging). If your AI tools can't explain their reasoning, show what they're doing live, or integrate cleanly with existing systems, they're creating ops debt regardless of how good the demo looked.
Shopify Reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results February 11 before markets open, with the management call at 8:30 AM ET. Watch commentary on GMV trends, AI feature adoption rates, and merchant growth patterns—these usually preview what capabilities matter for your business in the next 6–12 months.
TikTok Shop Launches AI tools for merchants: AI Fashion Video Maker (turn product images into shoppable videos without models or editing), List with AI (auto-generate full product listings from a single photo), and new CRM integrations. Social commerce is shifting from "post and hope" to AI-assisted selling—watch how early adopters use these to reduce the overhead that makes social feel like managing a second store.
The Difference Between 30% Growth and 8%
We're one month into 2026, and the pattern is becoming clear: the brands building durable advantages aren't the ones with the most tools. They're the ones solving the right problems at the right time.
BFCM generated $14+ billion across Shopify, but the real winners weren't just driving traffic. They started elevating inventory in September, maintained 22 weeks of cover, and built ops that handled 2x demand without breaking. Not sexy. Won't make headlines. But it's the difference between 30%+ growth and joining the 8-10% average.
Whether you're evaluating 3PL partners, exploring cross-border plays like Canada or Australia, or deciding if ChatGPT commerce matters yet, the approach is the same: start small, measure what matters, scale what works.
If something in today's edition hit different, or you're already testing one of these strategies, hit reply. I read every response, and your insights shape what we explore next.
Here's to turning momentum into something that lasts.
— Steve
P.S. Missed a previous edition? Browse the Fastlane Insider Archive for past strategies and playbooks.
